Hart-break for Labour as polls close

Results are still to be declared across much of the country, but the writing’s on the wall. The Labour Party – which was already on its back after the last General Election – has been kicked in the stomach by voters.

Labour, in a bid to remove the shock from the impending defeat, leaked its own Hartlepool internal polling data to friendly journalists earlier this week, which showed the Conservative Party on course to take the seat for the first time since its creation in the 1970s. The Labour candidate – a local NHS doctor and former MP for Stockton South – conceded defeat in the early hours of this morning.

Things are just as bleak at a local council level.

Just half an hour up the road, Labour-run Sunderland has had its majority further dented. Keep travelling north and you will enter a now Conservative-controlled Northumberland County Council. At least in Northumberland the result was so close that Labour only lost out after two seats were decided by drawing straws.  

Take a train down south and you won’t have to travel far to reach Harlow – a new town built by the famous post-war Labour Government – which is now Conservative-controlled after Labour lost 6 of the 7 seats it was defending. Travel east and you’ll hit Basildon, whose Labour Leader has conceded defeat, despite running a highly professional campaign and facing a disorganised local Conservative Group.

Wherever you look the picture is not looking great for Labour.

The Conservatives on the other hand have built a vast and resilient voter coalition. The Party has shed (some of) its Thatcherite skin in favour of higher spending (particularly when targeting red wall seats), and its highfliers are now household names thanks to regular televised briefings. Allegations over dodgy contracts, a lobbying scandal, one of the worst COVID death rates in the world and an old Etonian Prime Minister prone to gaffes haven’t cut through to voters.

There are myriad reasons for this, which I don’t have space to cover, and you don’t have time to read. Labour is seemingly toast in England and nowhere in Scotland. The Party is bereft of confidence and has no vision. Stark contrast to Boris Johnson’s buoyant Party.

As is so often the case, the local is very much a reflection of the national. So, is there any hope for Labour?

In London, yes. We’re still some hours away from Sadiq Khan’s second coronation, but this is further evidence of Labour’s woes. Huge numbers of young, ambitious (yes, we want to own homes too), educated, working-aged people are flocking to cities, and stacking Labour majorities high. Regional imbalances between isolated towns and globalised London, Manchester and elsewhere are sowing resentment and discord. This fuels a toxic culture war of young vs old, university-educated vs school leavers, asset-owners vs renters, nationalists vs internationalists. I could go on.

In 2019, we saw Conservative councils fall to Liberal Democrats and residents’ associations, some of which was driven by local planning issues. It’ll be worth keeping an eye on the increasing conflict between anti-development Conservative councils and the planning reforms set to hit them head-on in two years’ time. We’ve already seen some watering down due to opposition from Tory heartlands.

In any event, Labour is in dire straits, leaving the country with no true opposition.

Thank God the pubs are open…